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Mławianka Mława vs Olimpia Zambrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
FT
1 – 1
Olimpia Zambrów
Olimpia Zambrów
5/13/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28MOSIR boisko sztuczna nawierzchnia Mława

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mławianka Mława48%
×Draw23%
Olimpia Zambrów29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mławianka Mława
1.87
Olimpia Zambrów
1.41

Mławianka Mława creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mławianka Mława
2.15
Olimpia Zambrów
1.14

allows per match

Mławianka Mława
1.68
Olimpia Zambrów
1.59

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par
Olimpia Zambrów+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Olimpia Zambrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw
71%
Mławianka Mława or Olimpia Zambrów
77%
Draw or Olimpia Zambrów
52%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
27%
Olimpia Zambrów wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
85%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
56%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
29%
Olimpia Zambrów 1+ goals
76%
Olimpia Zambrów 2+ goals
41%
Olimpia Zambrów 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
62%
Olimpia Zambrów (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Olimpia Zambrów away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Olimpia Zambrów defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.87

Olimpia Zambrów attack 1.14 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more
48%
level
23%
Olimpia Zambrów scores more
29%

Mławianka Mława at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Mławianka Mława 1–1 Olimpia Zambrów

Mławianka Mława and Olimpia Zambrów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at MOSIR boisko sztuczna nawierzchnia Mława in Mława.