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Mławianka Mława vs Legionovia Legionowo — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
FT
3 – 0
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
8/11/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2MOSIR boisko sztuczna nawierzchnia Mława

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Mławianka Mława43%
×Draw22%
Legionovia Legionowo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mławianka Mława
1.89
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

Mławianka Mława creates 12% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 70 away

creates per match

Mławianka Mława
2.15
Legionovia Legionowo
1.69

allows per match

Mławianka Mława
1.68
Legionovia Legionowo
1.63

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw
65%
Mławianka Mława or Legionovia Legionowo
78%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
57%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
23%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
85%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
56%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
29%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
82%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
50%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
55%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.69 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more
43%
level
22%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
35%

Mławianka Mława at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Mławianka Mława 3–0 Legionovia Legionowo

Mławianka Mława beat Legionovia Legionowo 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at MOSIR boisko sztuczna nawierzchnia Mława in Mława.