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Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Mławianka Mława
Mławianka Mława
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jagiellonia II
Jagiellonia II
5/13/2026III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group I - 31Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Mławianka Mława46%
×Draw22%
Jagiellonia II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mławianka Mława
1.91
Jagiellonia II
1.58

Mławianka Mława creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 103 away

creates per match

Mławianka Mława
2.15
Jagiellonia II
1.48

allows per match

Mławianka Mława
1.68
Jagiellonia II
1.67

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par
Jagiellonia II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Jagiellonia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw
68%
Mławianka Mława or Jagiellonia II
78%
Draw or Jagiellonia II
54%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+
25%
Jagiellonia II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals
85%
Mławianka Mława 2+ goals
57%
Mławianka Mława 3+ goals
30%
Jagiellonia II 1+ goals
79%
Jagiellonia II 2+ goals
47%
Jagiellonia II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)
59%
Jagiellonia II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Jagiellonia II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.67 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Jagiellonia II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Jagiellonia II attack 1.48 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more
46%
level
22%
Jagiellonia II scores more
32%

Mławianka Mława at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Mławianka Mława 0–1 Jagiellonia II

Jagiellonia II beat Mławianka Mława 1-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 13, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa in Mlawa.