Mławianka Mława 2–0 Concordia Elbląg

Mławianka Mława

FT

2 – 0

Concordia Elbląg

4/20/2024

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion MOSiR Mlawa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mławianka Mława59%

×Draw19%

Concordia Elbląg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mławianka MławaExpected goals in this matchConcordia Elbląg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.36

Mławianka Mława

2.36

Concordia Elbląg

1.36

Mławianka Mława creates 74% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

2.15

creates per match

1.04

1.68

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Mławianka Mława

2.15

Concordia Elbląg

1.04

allows per match

Mławianka Mława

1.68

Concordia Elbląg

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mławianka Mława+0.00on par

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mławianka Mława ↓

Concordia Elbląg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Mławianka Mława or draw

79%

Mławianka Mława or Concordia Elbląg

81%

Draw or Concordia Elbląg

41%

Winning margin

Mławianka Mława wins by 2+

38%

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mławianka Mława 1+ goals

90%

Mławianka Mława 2+ goals

68%

Mławianka Mława 3+ goals

41%

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

74%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

39%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mławianka Mława (draw refunded)

74%

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mławianka Mława at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mławianka Mława attack 2.15 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.36

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Mławianka Mława defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mławianka Mława scores more

59%

level

19%

Concordia Elbląg scores more

21%

Mławianka Mława at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mławianka Mława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff