Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1–2 Nyva Vinnytsya

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Nyva Vinnytsya

L. Nadiradze 10'

A. Zagorulko 74' (pen)

E. Serbul 35'

11/6/2021

Druha Liga - Group A · Group A - 17Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche14%

×Draw17%

Nyva Vinnytsya68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyubomyr StavyshcheExpected goals in this matchNyva Vinnytsya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.48

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

1.04

Nyva Vinnytsya

2.48

Nyva Vinnytsya creates 138% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 76 away

0.63

creates per match

1.32

3.63

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

0.63

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.32

allows per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche

3.63

Nyva Vinnytsya

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par

Nyva Vinnytsya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyubomyr Stavyshche ↓

Nyva Vinnytsya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or draw

32%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or Nyva Vinnytsya

83%

Draw or Nyva Vinnytsya

86%

Winning margin

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+

5%

Nyva Vinnytsya wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals

65%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals

28%

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals

9%

Nyva Vinnytsya 1+ goals

92%

Nyva Vinnytsya 2+ goals

70%

Nyva Vinnytsya 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)

17%

Nyva Vinnytsya (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyubomyr Stavyshche at home — creates 0.63, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

Nyva Vinnytsya away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.46 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.63 + Nyva Vinnytsya defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nyva Vinnytsya attack 1.32 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more

14%

level

17%

Nyva Vinnytsya scores more

68%

Nyva Vinnytsya at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Nyva Vinnytsya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

L. Nadiradze

35'

E. Serbul

46'

B. Kozyi← A. Marchuk

60'

I. Malyarenko← A. Bryzhchuk

64'

L. Nadiradze

69'

V. Kucher← K. Gramatik

74'

A. ZagorulkoPenalty

82'

M. Komisar← D. Bondar

87'

D. Bondar← D. Gromok

Lyubomyr

Nyva

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: V. Lazorenko

46'▲B. Kozyi←▼A. Marchuk

82'▲M. Komisar←▼D. Bondar

Lyubomyr Stavyshche substitutes

KozyiKomisar

Manager: V. Vishtalyuk

60'▲I. Malyarenko←▼A. Bryzhchuk

69'▲V. Kucher←▼K. Gramatik

87'▲D. Bondar←▼D. Gromok

Nyva Vinnytsya substitutes

MalyarenkoKucherBondar

Match Recap: Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs Nyva Vinnytsya

Nyva Vinnytsya beat Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 6, 2021.

Goals: L. Nadiradze (10'), E. Serbul (35'), A. Zagorulko (74' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.

Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs Nyva Vinnytsya — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs Nyva Vinnytsya