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Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs Karpaty Halych — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty Halych
Karpaty Halych
7/25/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 1Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche13%
×Draw16%
Karpaty Halych71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
1.04
Karpaty Halych
2.64

Karpaty Halych creates 154% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
0.63
Karpaty Halych
1.65

allows per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
3.63
Karpaty Halych
1.45

finishing

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par
Karpaty Halych+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyubomyr Stavyshche ↓

Karpaty Halych →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or draw
29%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche or Karpaty Halych
84%
Draw or Karpaty Halych
87%

Winning margin

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+
4%
Karpaty Halych wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals
65%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals
28%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals
9%
Karpaty Halych 1+ goals
93%
Karpaty Halych 2+ goals
74%
Karpaty Halych 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)
15%
Karpaty Halych (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyubomyr Stavyshche at home — creates 0.63, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

Karpaty Halych away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.63 + Karpaty Halych defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.04

Karpaty Halych attack 1.65 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more
13%
level
16%
Karpaty Halych scores more
71%

Karpaty Halych at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Karpaty Halych will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Lyubomyr Stavyshche 0–3 Karpaty Halych

Karpaty Halych beat Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on July 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.