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Lyubomyr Stavyshche vs AFSK Kyiv — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
Lyubomyr Stavyshche
CANC
14:00
AFSK Kyiv
AFSK Kyiv
4/23/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 26Stadion Kolos Stavyshche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyubomyr Stavyshche24%
×Draw22%
AFSK Kyiv54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
1.27
AFSK Kyiv
1.98

AFSK Kyiv creates 56% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
0.63
AFSK Kyiv
0.33

allows per match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche
3.63
AFSK Kyiv
1.92

finishing

Lyubomyr Stavyshche+0.00on par
AFSK Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyubomyr Stavyshche ↓

AFSK Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lyubomyr Stavyshche or draw
46%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche or AFSK Kyiv
78%
Draw or AFSK Kyiv
76%

Winning margin

Lyubomyr Stavyshche wins by 2+
10%
AFSK Kyiv wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Lyubomyr Stavyshche 1+ goals
72%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 2+ goals
36%
Lyubomyr Stavyshche 3+ goals
14%
AFSK Kyiv 1+ goals
86%
AFSK Kyiv 2+ goals
59%
AFSK Kyiv 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Lyubomyr Stavyshche (draw refunded)
31%
AFSK Kyiv (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyubomyr Stavyshche at home — creates 0.63, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

AFSK Kyiv away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyubomyr Stavyshche attack 0.63 + AFSK Kyiv defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

AFSK Kyiv attack 0.33 + Lyubomyr Stavyshche defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lyubomyr Stavyshche scores more
24%
level
22%
AFSK Kyiv scores more
54%

AFSK Kyiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AFSK Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyubomyr Stavyshche face AFSK Kyiv (Druha Liga - Group A)

Druha Liga - Group A returns with Lyubomyr Stavyshche hosting AFSK Kyiv. Match starts April 23, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lyubomyr Stavyshche host AFSK Kyiv at Stadion Kolos Stavyshche.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.