Lystrup 2–2 Hedensted: Result & Stats | League #127

Lystrup

FT

2 – 2

Hedensted

10/28/2017

League #127 · Round 13Lystrup Enge Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lystrup21%

×Draw22%

Hedensted57%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LystrupExpected goals in this matchHedensted

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.90

Lystrup

1.07

Hedensted

1.90

Hedensted creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

1.47

creates per match

2.00

1.80

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Lystrup

1.47

Hedensted

2.00

allows per match

Lystrup

1.80

Hedensted

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lystrup+0.00on par

Hedensted+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lystrup ↓

Hedensted →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lystrup or draw

43%

Lystrup or Hedensted

78%

Draw or Hedensted

79%

Winning margin

Lystrup wins by 2+

8%

Hedensted wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Lystrup 1+ goals

66%

Lystrup 2+ goals

29%

Lystrup 3+ goals

9%

Hedensted 1+ goals

85%

Hedensted 2+ goals

56%

Hedensted 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Lystrup (draw refunded)

27%

Hedensted (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lystrup at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Hedensted away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lystrup attack 1.47 + Hedensted defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.07

Hedensted attack 2.00 + Lystrup defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lystrup scores more

21%

level

22%

Hedensted scores more

57%

Hedensted at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hedensted will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff