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Lyseng vs Randers Freja — League #127 2026

Lyseng
Lyseng
FT
5 – 1
Randers Freja
Randers Freja
10/22/2016League #127League #127 · Round 12Lyseng Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyseng73%
×Draw14%
Randers Freja14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyseng
3.56
Randers Freja
1.56

Lyseng creates 128% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lyseng
3.50
Randers Freja
2.13

allows per match

Lyseng
1.00
Randers Freja
3.63

finishing

Lyseng+0.00on par
Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyseng ↓

Randers Freja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Lyseng or draw
86%
Lyseng or Randers Freja
86%
Draw or Randers Freja
27%

Winning margin

Lyseng wins by 2+
55%
Randers Freja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lyseng 1+ goals
97%
Lyseng 2+ goals
86%
Lyseng 3+ goals
67%
Randers Freja 1+ goals
79%
Randers Freja 2+ goals
46%
Randers Freja 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lyseng (draw refunded)
84%
Randers Freja (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyseng at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 2.13, concedes 3.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyseng attack 3.50 + Randers Freja defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 3.56

Randers Freja attack 2.13 + Lyseng defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lyseng scores more
73%
level
14%
Randers Freja scores more
14%

Lyseng at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lyseng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: Lyseng 5–1 Randers Freja

Lyseng beat Randers Freja 5-1 in League #127 on October 22, 2016.

The match was played at Lyseng Idrætspark in Højbjerg.