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Lyseng vs Næsby — 3. Division 2021

Lyseng
Lyseng
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Næsby
Næsby
11/4/20233. Division3. Division · Round 14Lyseng Kunstgræs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lyseng36%
×Draw24%
Næsby40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyseng
1.46
Næsby
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lyseng
1.44
Næsby
1.60

allows per match

Lyseng
1.49
Næsby
1.49

finishing

Lyseng+0.00on par
Næsby+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyseng ↓

Næsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lyseng or draw
60%
Lyseng or Næsby
76%
Draw or Næsby
64%

Winning margin

Lyseng wins by 2+
17%
Næsby wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lyseng 1+ goals
77%
Lyseng 2+ goals
43%
Lyseng 3+ goals
18%
Næsby 1+ goals
79%
Næsby 2+ goals
45%
Næsby 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lyseng (draw refunded)
48%
Næsby (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyseng at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

Næsby away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.49 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyseng attack 1.44 + Næsby defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Næsby attack 1.60 + Lyseng defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lyseng scores more
36%
level
24%
Næsby scores more
40%

Næsby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Næsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: Lyseng 1–1 Næsby

Lyseng and Næsby drew 1-1 in 3. Division on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Lyseng Kunstgræs in Højbjerg.