Lysekloster 1–1 Vidar: Result & Stats

Lysekloster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Vidar

4/11/2026

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 2Lysekloster Family Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lysekloster55%

×Draw23%

Vidar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyseklosterExpected goals in this matchVidar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.05

Lysekloster

1.81

Vidar

1.05

Lysekloster creates 72% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

1.56

creates per match

0.86

1.25

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Lysekloster

1.56

Vidar

0.86

allows per match

Lysekloster

1.25

Vidar

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lysekloster ↓

Vidar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lysekloster or draw

78%

Lysekloster or Vidar

77%

Draw or Vidar

45%

Winning margin

Lysekloster wins by 2+

31%

Vidar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lysekloster 1+ goals

84%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

54%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

27%

Vidar 1+ goals

65%

Vidar 2+ goals

28%

Vidar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

72%

Vidar (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lysekloster at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Vidar away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lysekloster attack 1.56 + Vidar defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vidar attack 0.86 + Lysekloster defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lysekloster scores more

55%

level

23%

Vidar scores more

22%

Lysekloster at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Lysekloster

Vidar

1

8

17

24

25

7

18

22

2

9

13

1

4

5

7

30

6

8

10

11

32

33

Manager: Tommy Knarvik

Lysekloster substitutes

25Lie2Konstali3Ankerstjerne9Johnsen17Nakken18Lunde19Bonabandi24Vik

Vidar substitutes

12Doble6Sebulonsen11Nilsen14Taraldset19Soyland26Brandser29Steen4Vik16Joakimsen

Match Recap: Lysekloster vs Vidar

Lysekloster and Vidar drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Lysekloster Family Arena.

Lysekloster vs Vidar — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lysekloster vs Vidar