Lysekloster 1–2 Notodden: Result & Stats

Lysekloster

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Notodden

S. Marthinussen 53'

L. Kyvik 78'

S. Jørgensen 26'

8/24/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Lysekloster Framo Idrettsplass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lysekloster48%

×Draw24%

Notodden29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyseklosterExpected goals in this matchNotodden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Lysekloster

1.71

Notodden

1.27

Lysekloster creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

1.56

creates per match

1.28

1.25

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Lysekloster

1.56

Notodden

1.28

allows per match

Lysekloster

1.25

Notodden

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Notodden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lysekloster ↓

Notodden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Lysekloster or draw

71%

Lysekloster or Notodden

76%

Draw or Notodden

52%

Winning margin

Lysekloster wins by 2+

25%

Notodden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lysekloster 1+ goals

82%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

51%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

24%

Notodden 1+ goals

72%

Notodden 2+ goals

36%

Notodden 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

63%

Notodden (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lysekloster at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Notodden away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.86 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lysekloster attack 1.56 + Notodden defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Notodden attack 1.28 + Lysekloster defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lysekloster scores more

48%

level

24%

Notodden scores more

29%

Lysekloster at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

26'

40'

42'

53'

58'

71'

71'

71'

71'

D. Sissoko← A. Skjold

71'

J. Nesland← S. Bratvold

74'

S. Larsen

78'

L. Kyvik

87'

O. Håbestad← J. Edvardsen

87'

S. Svarstad← A. Ryste

Lysekloster

Notodden

1

Midtlyng

5

Jabari

3

▼

2

4

6

8

⚽

Jørgensen

10

▼

Skjold

17

▼

Holthe

16

▼

Ryste

37

▼

12

33

4

8

31

▼

Kvarven

20

⚽

Marthinus

16

Brudvik

7

▼

Edvardsen

10

Dang

14

Singh

21

▼

Hildal

Manager: R. Hetlevik

71'▲L. Kilen←▼J. Kvarven

71'▲J. Bolsø←▼T. Hildal

87'▲O. Håbestad←▼J. Edvardsen

Lysekloster substitutes

11Kilen32Bolsø19Håbestad1Meļņičenko2Rinde13Moula18Lunde

Manager: S. Lund

58'▲J. Ulsnes←▼J. Holthe

71'▲L. Kyvik←▼P. Ullenes

71'▲D. Sissoko←▼A. Skjold

71'▲J. Nesland←▼S. Bratvold

87'▲S. Svarstad←▼A. Ryste

Notodden substitutes

7Ulsnes18Kyvik20Sissoko21Nesland19Svarstad12Bergesen24Telle