Lysekloster 5–0 Grorud II: Result & Stats

Lysekloster

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Grorud II

H. Andersen 90'

A. Dang 77', 61', 58'

L. Kilen 65'

9/17/2023

3. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Lysekloster Framo Idrettsplass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lysekloster69%

×Draw16%

Grorud II15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyseklosterExpected goals in this matchGrorud II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.25

Lysekloster

2.80

Grorud II

1.25

Lysekloster creates 124% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

3.15

creates per match

1.88

0.62

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Lysekloster

3.15

Grorud II

1.88

allows per match

Lysekloster

0.62

Grorud II

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lysekloster+0.00on par

Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lysekloster ↓

Grorud II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Lysekloster or draw

85%

Lysekloster or Grorud II

84%

Draw or Grorud II

31%

Winning margin

Lysekloster wins by 2+

48%

Grorud II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lysekloster 1+ goals

94%

Lysekloster 2+ goals

76%

Lysekloster 3+ goals

52%

Grorud II 1+ goals

71%

Grorud II 2+ goals

36%

Grorud II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lysekloster (draw refunded)

82%

Grorud II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lysekloster at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lysekloster attack 3.15 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.80

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Lysekloster defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Lysekloster scores more

69%

level

16%

Grorud II scores more

15%

Lysekloster at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Lysekloster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

61'

65'

77'

90'

H. Andersen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff