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Lys Sassandra vs Zoman — Ligue 1 2019

Lys Sassandra
Lys Sassandra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zoman
Zoman
11/5/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 7Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lys Sassandra33%
×Draw32%
Zoman35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lys Sassandra
0.93
Zoman
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Lys Sassandra
0.84
Zoman
0.87

allows per match

Lys Sassandra
1.07
Zoman
1.02

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par
Zoman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

Zoman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw
65%
Lys Sassandra or Zoman
68%
Draw or Zoman
67%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+
12%
Zoman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals
61%
Lys Sassandra 2+ goals
24%
Lys Sassandra 3+ goals
7%
Zoman 1+ goals
62%
Zoman 2+ goals
25%
Zoman 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)
48%
Zoman (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

Zoman away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + Zoman defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Zoman attack 0.87 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more
33%
level
32%
Zoman scores more
35%

Zoman at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Zoman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lys Sassandra vs Zoman

Lys Sassandra and Zoman drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.