Lys Sassandra 3–1 Sporting Gagnoa: Result & Stats

Lys Sassandra

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Gagnoa

11/26/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lys Sassandra33%

×Draw31%

Sporting Gagnoa35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lys SassandraExpected goals in this matchSporting Gagnoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.00

Lys Sassandra

0.96

Sporting Gagnoa

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 59 away

0.84

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Lys Sassandra

0.84

Sporting Gagnoa

0.92

allows per match

Lys Sassandra

1.07

Sporting Gagnoa

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

Sporting Gagnoa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

Sporting Gagnoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw

65%

Lys Sassandra or Sporting Gagnoa

69%

Draw or Sporting Gagnoa

67%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

12%

Sporting Gagnoa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

62%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

25%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

7%

Sporting Gagnoa 1+ goals

63%

Sporting Gagnoa 2+ goals

26%

Sporting Gagnoa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

48%

Sporting Gagnoa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

Sporting Gagnoa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + Sporting Gagnoa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sporting Gagnoa attack 0.92 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more

33%

level

31%

Sporting Gagnoa scores more

35%

Sporting Gagnoa at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sporting Gagnoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff