Lys Sassandra 1–2 San-Pédro: Result & Stats

Lys Sassandra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

San-Pédro

2/15/2025

Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Laurent Pokou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lys Sassandra27%

×Draw29%

San-Pédro43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lys SassandraExpected goals in this matchSan-Pédro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.21

Lys Sassandra

0.90

San-Pédro

1.21

San-Pédro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

0.84

creates per match

1.35

1.07

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Lys Sassandra

0.84

San-Pédro

1.35

allows per match

Lys Sassandra

1.07

San-Pédro

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lys Sassandra+0.00on par

San-Pédro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lys Sassandra ↓

San-Pédro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lys Sassandra or draw

57%

Lys Sassandra or San-Pédro

71%

Draw or San-Pédro

73%

Winning margin

Lys Sassandra wins by 2+

9%

San-Pédro wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lys Sassandra 1+ goals

59%

Lys Sassandra 2+ goals

23%

Lys Sassandra 3+ goals

6%

San-Pédro 1+ goals

70%

San-Pédro 2+ goals

34%

San-Pédro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lys Sassandra (draw refunded)

39%

San-Pédro (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lys Sassandra at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

San-Pédro away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lys Sassandra attack 0.84 + San-Pédro defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

San-Pédro attack 1.35 + Lys Sassandra defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lys Sassandra scores more

27%

level

29%

San-Pédro scores more

43%

San-Pédro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "San-Pédro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff