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Lyon W vs VfL Wolfsburg W — UEFA Champions League Women 2026

Lyon W
Lyon W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Wolfsburg W
VfL Wolfsburg W
D. van de Donk 81'
12/17/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · Group Stage - 6Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Lyon W45%
×Draw21%
VfL Wolfsburg W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon W
2.15
VfL Wolfsburg W
1.87

Lyon W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lyon W
2.87
VfL Wolfsburg W
2.81

allows per match

Lyon W
0.93
VfL Wolfsburg W
1.42

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par
VfL Wolfsburg W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

VfL Wolfsburg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw
66%
Lyon W or VfL Wolfsburg W
79%
Draw or VfL Wolfsburg W
55%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+
26%
VfL Wolfsburg W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals
88%
Lyon W 2+ goals
63%
Lyon W 3+ goals
36%
VfL Wolfsburg W 1+ goals
85%
VfL Wolfsburg W 2+ goals
56%
VfL Wolfsburg W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)
57%
VfL Wolfsburg W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

VfL Wolfsburg W away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 2.87 + VfL Wolfsburg W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.15

VfL Wolfsburg W attack 2.81 + Lyon W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lyon W scores more
45%
level
21%
VfL Wolfsburg W scores more
34%

Lyon W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
D. van de DonkLyon WLyon W · M
7.9

Match Events

60'
S. Däbritz← D. Marozsán
60'
E. Le Sommer← A. Hegerberg
61'
J. Brand← C. Hagel
71'
S. Svava← S. Bacha
71'
D. van de Donk← L. Horan
72'
L. Beerensteyn← V. Endemann
72'
J. Minge← S. Huth
80'
V. Bècho← T. Chawinga
81'
D. van de Donk↳ K. Diani
82'
L. Lattwein← J. Kielland
82'
R. Blomqvist← A. Popp

Possession

56%Lyon

Shots

9Lyon

Pass accuracy

52%Lyon

Statistics

LyonVfL
Overview
56%Possession44%
9Total Shots7
8Corners2
8Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots7
3On Target2
3Off Target3
3Blocked2
8Inside Box1
1Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
565Total Passes447
482Accurate Passes346
85%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls9
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Lyon W vs VfL Wolfsburg W

Lyon W beat VfL Wolfsburg W 1-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on December 17, 2024.

Goals: D. van de Donk (81').

Lyon W controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.