Lyon W 7–0 Fortuna Hjørring W: Result & Stats

Lyon W

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Fortuna Hjørring W

N. Parris 90+3'

K. Buchanan 83'

Jéssica da Silva 81'

G. Mbock 65'

A. Hegerberg 46', 12'

E. Le Sommer 34'

10/30/2019

UEFA Champions League Women · 8th FinalsGroupama OL Academy Décines-Charpieu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lyon W75%

×Draw14%

Fortuna Hjørring W10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyon WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Hjørring W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.97

Lyon W

2.83

Fortuna Hjørring W

0.97

Lyon W creates 192% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 5 away

2.87

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Lyon W

2.87

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.00

allows per match

Lyon W

0.93

Fortuna Hjørring W

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw

90%

Lyon W or Fortuna Hjørring W

86%

Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W

25%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+

55%

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals

94%

Lyon W 2+ goals

77%

Lyon W 3+ goals

53%

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

62%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

25%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)

88%

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 2.87 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.83

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.00 + Lyon W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Lyon W scores more

75%

level

14%

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

10%

Lyon W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Hegerberg

34'

E. Le Sommer

46'

A. Hegerberg

56'

N. Parris← A. Hegerberg

63'

R. Frederiksen← S. Lundgaard

65'

G. Mbock

66'

D. Cascarino← E. Le Sommer

71'

L. Dissing← S. Franssi

77'

Jéssica da Silva← D. Marozsan

79'

S. Jakobsen← K. Daugherty

81'

Jéssica da Silva

83'

K. Buchanan

90+3'

N. Parris

Lyon

Fortuna

1

▼

4

8

15

7

18

12

10

11

6

▼

Lundgaard

9

▼

Franssi

16

Bouhaddi

2

Bronze

29

⚽

Mbock

21

⚽

Buchanan

4

Bacha

5

Kumagai

10

▼

Marozsan

7

Majri

9

⚽

▼

Sommer

11

Sanden

14

⚽2

▼

Hegerberg

Manager: J. Vasseur

56'▲N. Parris←▼A. Hegerberg

66'▲D. Cascarino←▼E. Le Sommer

77'▲Jéssica da Silva←▼D. Marozsan

Lyon W substitutes

17Parris20Cascarino19Silva1Weiß3Renard6Henry15Greenwood

Manager: C. Kveton

63'▲R. Frederiksen←▼S. Lundgaard

71'▲L. Dissing←▼S. Franssi

79'▲S. Jakobsen←▼K. Daugherty

Fortuna Hjørring W substitutes

14Frederiksen20Dissing17Jakobsen2Karsberg-Petersen3Bergmann19Christensen23Guldager