Lyon W 4–0 Atletico Madrid W: Result & Stats

Lyon W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Madrid W

K. Shrader 71'

K. Diani 53'

W. Renard 52' (pen)

V. Boe Risa 31' (OG)

12/17/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 6Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lyon W53%

×Draw21%

Atletico Madrid W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lyon WExpected goals in this matchAtletico Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.52

Lyon W

2.21

Atletico Madrid W

1.52

Lyon W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

2.87

creates per match

2.11

0.93

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Lyon W

2.87

Atletico Madrid W

2.11

allows per match

Lyon W

0.93

Atletico Madrid W

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon W+0.00on par

Atletico Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon W ↓

Atletico Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Lyon W or draw

74%

Lyon W or Atletico Madrid W

79%

Draw or Atletico Madrid W

47%

Winning margin

Lyon W wins by 2+

32%

Atletico Madrid W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lyon W 1+ goals

89%

Lyon W 2+ goals

65%

Lyon W 3+ goals

38%

Atletico Madrid W 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Madrid W 2+ goals

45%

Atletico Madrid W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Lyon W (draw refunded)

67%

Atletico Madrid W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon W at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Atletico Madrid W away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon W attack 2.87 + Atletico Madrid W defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.21

Atletico Madrid W attack 2.11 + Lyon W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lyon W scores more

53%

level

21%

Atletico Madrid W scores more

26%

Lyon W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lyon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

W. Renard

Lyon W · D

9.5

Match Events

13'

Tarciane

31'

V. Boe RisaOwn goal

36'

Luany

50'

Kadidiatou DianiPenalty confirmed

52'

W. RenardPenalty

53'

K. Diani↳ Tarciane

60'

K. Shrader← L. Heaps

60'

M. Katoto← A. Hegerberg

60'

A. Sombath← Tarciane

66'

A. Vitoria← V. Boe Risa

66'

A. Sarriegi← S. Jensen

66'

Alexia← M. Portales Nieto

71'

K. Shrader↳ D. Egurrola

72'

J. Brand← K. Diani

74'

I. Benyahia← D. M. Dumornay

78'

R. Otermin← F. Iannuzzi

82'

X. Perez← S. Lloris

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LyonAtletico

Overview

67%Possession33%

32Total Shots2

8Corners1

8Fouls7

Shots

32Total Shots2

8On Target0

17Off Target2

7Blocked0

18Inside Box1

14Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

629Total Passes313

569Accurate Passes228

90%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3