Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lyon vs Toulouse — Ligue 1 2026

Lyon
Lyon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Toulouse
Toulouse
K. Toko Ekambi 77'
M. Dembélé 71'
M. Cornet 29'
1/26/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Lyon47%
×Draw24%
Toulouse29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon
1.68
Toulouse
1.27

Lyon creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lyon
2.01
Toulouse
1.37

allows per match

Lyon
1.18
Toulouse
1.35

finishing

Lyon-0.17scores less
Toulouse+0.11scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Toulouse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lyon or draw
71%
Lyon or Toulouse
76%
Draw or Toulouse
53%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+
25%
Toulouse wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals
81%
Lyon 2+ goals
50%
Lyon 3+ goals
24%
Toulouse 1+ goals
72%
Toulouse 2+ goals
36%
Toulouse 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)
62%
Toulouse (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.18 · 32 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.35 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.01 + Toulouse defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Toulouse attack 1.37 + Lyon defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lyon scores more
47%
level
24%
Toulouse scores more
29%

Lyon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Fernando MarçalLyonLyon · D
8.7

Match Events

26'
K. Toko Ekambi← M. Terrier
29'
M. Cornet↳ H. Aouar
46'
William Vainqueur
69'
E. Koulouris← A. Leya
71'
M. Dembélé↳ Fernando Marçal
73'
M. Cherki← H. Aouar
75'
W. Saïd← M. Dossevi
77'
K. Toko Ekambi↳ Thiago Mendes
79'
Bertrand Traoré← M. Cornet
84'
A. Adli← Q. Boisgard

Possession

63%Lyon

Shots

13Lyon

Pass accuracy

54%Lyon

Statistics

LyonToulouse
Overview
63%Possession37%
13Total Shots10
8Corners2
8Fouls5
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target4
6Off Target2
2Blocked4
9Inside Box3
4Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
687Total Passes408
623Accurate Passes320
91%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls5
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Lyon 3 – 0 Toulouse

Lyon beat Toulouse 3-0 in Ligue 1 on January 26, 2020.

Goals: M. Cornet (29'), M. Dembélé (71'), K. Toko Ekambi (77').

Lyon controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.