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Lyon vs Reims — Ligue 1 2026

Lyon
Lyon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Reims
Reims
M. Caqueret 82'
A. Lacazette 9'
E. Agbadou 2' (OG)
5/27/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 37Groupama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Lyon52%
×Draw22%
Reims26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon
1.96
Reims
1.32

Lyon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lyon
1.98
Reims
1.45

allows per match

Lyon
1.20
Reims
1.95

finishing

Lyon-0.16scores less
Reims-0.62scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lyon or draw
74%
Lyon or Reims
78%
Draw or Reims
48%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+
30%
Reims wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals
86%
Lyon 2+ goals
58%
Lyon 3+ goals
31%
Reims 1+ goals
73%
Reims 2+ goals
38%
Reims 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)
67%
Reims (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.20 · 34 matches

Reims away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 1.98 + Reims defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.96

Reims attack 1.45 + Lyon defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lyon scores more
52%
level
22%
Reims scores more
26%

Lyon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
M. CaqueretLyonLyon · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
E. AgbadouOwn goal
9'
A. Lacazette↳ B. Barcola
40'
Junya ItoGoal cancelled
53'
Emmanuel AgbadouCard upgrade
54'
Emmanuel Agbadou
59'
D. Lopy← V. Atangana Edoa
59'
F. Fall← A. Flips
66'
H. Aouar← Jeffinho
69'
J. Lepenant← J. Boateng
73'
Alexandre LacazetteGoal cancelled
75'
Fallou Fall
80'
Johann Lepenant
82'
M. Caqueret
83'
A. Sarr← B. Barcola
83'
M. Sarr← M. Caqueret
83'
M. Gusto← S. Kumbedi
88'
T. De Smet← J. Cajuste
88'
S. Koeberlé← M. Busi
90+3'
M. Diakhon← J. Ito

Possession

55%Lyon

Shots

23Lyon

Pass accuracy

51%Lyon

Statistics

LyonReims
Overview
55%Possession45%
23Total Shots10
2.69Expected Goals (xG)1.06
7Corners4
10Fouls15
Shots
23Total Shots10
7On Target1
9Off Target5
7Blocked4
12Inside Box6
11Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
474Total Passes376
413Accurate Passes310
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
4Offsides4

Match Recap: Lyon vs Reims

Lyon beat Reims 3-0 in Ligue 1 on May 27, 2023.

Goals: E. Agbadou (2' o.g.), A. Lacazette (9'), M. Caqueret (82').

Lyon controlled possession (55%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu.