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Lyon vs Metz — Ligue 1 2026

Lyon
Lyon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Metz
Metz
A. Karabec 83'
C. Tolisso 30'
M. Fofana 25'
8/23/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Lyon63%
×Draw20%
Metz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon
2.12
Metz
0.98

Lyon creates 116% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 21 away

creates per match

Lyon
1.99
Metz
0.76

allows per match

Lyon
1.20
Metz
2.24

finishing

Lyon-0.14scores less
Metz+0.19scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lyon or draw
83%
Lyon or Metz
80%
Draw or Metz
37%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+
40%
Metz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals
88%
Lyon 2+ goals
62%
Lyon 3+ goals
35%
Metz 1+ goals
62%
Metz 2+ goals
26%
Metz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)
79%
Metz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.20 · 33 matches

Metz away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 1.99 + Metz defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Metz attack 0.76 + Lyon defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lyon scores more
63%
level
20%
Metz scores more
17%

Lyon at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Fofana↳ P. Sulc
30'
C. Tolisso↳ A. Maitland-Niles
41'
A. Toure← U. Mboula
54'
Boubacar Traoré
62'
M. Bokele Mputu← G. Abuashvili
62'
I. Sane← G. Tsitaishvili
74'
A. Karabec← P. Sulc
74'
K. Merah← C. Tolisso
75'
N. Tagliafico← Abner Vinicius
80'
I. Gueye← B. Madjo
82'
Koffi Kouao
83'
A. Karabec
86'
R. Kluivert← C. Mata
86'
A. Moreira← M. Fofana

Possession

53%Lyon

Shots

13Lyon

Pass accuracy

50%Lyon

Statistics

LyonMetz
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots11
2.77Expected Goals (xG)0.56
4Corners3
13Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots11
8On Target2
3Off Target3
2Blocked6
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
542Total Passes485
500Accurate Passes442
92%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
0.07Goals Prevented0.07
Discipline
13Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Lyon 3 – 0 Metz

Lyon beat Metz 3-0 in Ligue 1 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Fofana (25'), C. Tolisso (30'), A. Karabec (83').

Lyon controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Lyon.