Lyon 5–0 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lyon

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arles

Michel Bastos 90'

L. López 55', 51', 13'

M. Pjanic 17'

3/6/2011

Ligue 1 · Round 26Stade de Gerland (Lyon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lyon68%

×Draw20%

Arles12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyonExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.72

Lyon

2.04

Arles

0.72

Lyon creates 183% more chances

Season form · 252 home / 19 away

2.04

creates per match

0.37

1.07

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Lyon

2.04

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Lyon

1.07

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyon+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lyon or draw

88%

Lyon or Arles

80%

Draw or Arles

32%

Winning margin

Lyon wins by 2+

43%

Arles wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Lyon 1+ goals

87%

Lyon 2+ goals

60%

Lyon 3+ goals

33%

Arles 1+ goals

51%

Arles 2+ goals

16%

Arles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lyon (draw refunded)

85%

Arles (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.07 · 252 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon attack 2.04 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.04

Arles attack 0.37 + Lyon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lyon scores more

68%

level

20%

Arles scores more

12%

Lyon at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lyon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

L. López↳ J. Briand

17'

M. Pjanic↳ L. López

49'

B. Gomis← Y. Gourcuff

51'

L. López↳ C. Delgado

55'

L. López↳ B. Gomis

59'

S. Piocelle← J. Aït-Ben-Idir

60'

T. Ayasse← L. Abenzoar

68'

M. Gonalons← L. López

77'

Michel Bastos← C. Delgado

77'

R. Cabella← C. Meriem

90'

Michel Bastos↳ J. Briand

Lyon

Arles

1

3

15

26

5

13

▼

Abenzoar

28

▼

Meriem

27

N'Diaye

7

Rocchi

6

▼

10

1

4

13

20

5

28

29

▼

Gourcuff

8

⚽

Pjanic

7

A

Briand

9

⚽3A

▼

López

19

A

▼

Delgado

49'▲B. Gomis←▼Y. Gourcuff

68'▲M. Gonalons←▼L. López

77'▲Michel Bastos←▼C. Delgado

Lyon substitutes

18Gomis21Gonalons11Bastos30Vercoutre2Gassama6Källström24Pied

59'▲S. Piocelle←▼J. Aït-Ben-Idir

60'▲T. Ayasse←▼L. Abenzoar

77'▲R. Cabella←▼C. Meriem

Arles substitutes

8Piocelle17Ayasse20Cabella30Yattara23Fanchone25Johnathan24Corrèze

Ligue 1: Lyon 5–0 Arles

Lyon beat Arles 5-0 in Ligue 1 on March 6, 2011.

Goals: L. López (13', 51', 55'), M. Pjanic (17'), Michel Bastos (90').

The match was played at Stade de Gerland (Lyon).

Lyon vs Arles — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: Lyon 5–0 Arles