Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lyon Duchere vs Bastia — Coupe de France 2018

Lyon Duchere
Lyon Duchere
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade de Balmont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lyon Duchere30%
×Draw23%
Bastia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyon Duchere
1.45
Bastia
1.85

Bastia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lyon Duchere
2.00
Bastia
2.33

allows per match

Lyon Duchere
1.38
Bastia
0.89

finishing

Lyon Duchere+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyon Duchere ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lyon Duchere or draw
53%
Lyon Duchere or Bastia
77%
Draw or Bastia
70%

Winning margin

Lyon Duchere wins by 2+
14%
Bastia wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Lyon Duchere 1+ goals
77%
Lyon Duchere 2+ goals
42%
Lyon Duchere 3+ goals
18%
Bastia 1+ goals
84%
Bastia 2+ goals
55%
Bastia 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Lyon Duchere (draw refunded)
39%
Bastia (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyon Duchere at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyon Duchere attack 2.00 + Bastia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bastia attack 2.33 + Lyon Duchere defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lyon Duchere scores more
30%
level
23%
Bastia scores more
47%

Bastia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lyon Duchere vs Bastia

Lyon Duchere beat Bastia 4-1 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Balmont in Lyon.