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Lyngby vs Naestved — 1. Division 2018

Lyngby
Lyngby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naestved
Naestved
5/19/20191. Division1. Division · Round 32Lyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Lyngby56%
×Draw23%
Naestved21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyngby
1.84
Naestved
1.04

Lyngby creates 77% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 65 away

creates per match

Lyngby
1.90
Naestved
1.05

allows per match

Lyngby
1.04
Naestved
1.78

finishing

Lyngby+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw
79%
Lyngby or Naestved
77%
Draw or Naestved
44%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+
32%
Naestved wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals
84%
Lyngby 2+ goals
55%
Lyngby 3+ goals
28%
Naestved 1+ goals
65%
Naestved 2+ goals
28%
Naestved 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)
73%
Naestved (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.90 + Naestved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.84

Naestved attack 1.05 + Lyngby defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lyngby scores more
56%
level
23%
Naestved scores more
21%

Lyngby at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lyngby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lyngby vs Naestved

Lyngby beat Naestved 2-0 in 1. Division on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Lyngby Stadion.