Lyngby 2–2 Hobro: Result & Stats | Superliga

Lyngby

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hobro

R. Corlu 68'

M. Rasmussen 23'

E. Babayan 76'

L. Nielsen 8' (OG)

7/20/2020

Superliga · Relegation Play-offs - FinalLyngby Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lyngby42%

×Draw26%

Hobro32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LyngbyExpected goals in this matchHobro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.23

Lyngby

1.45

Hobro

1.23

Lyngby creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 33 away

1.14

creates per match

1.03

1.43

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Lyngby

1.14

Hobro

1.03

allows per match

Lyngby

1.43

Hobro

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lyngby+0.00on par

Hobro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngby ↓

Hobro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lyngby or draw

68%

Lyngby or Hobro

74%

Draw or Hobro

58%

Winning margin

Lyngby wins by 2+

20%

Hobro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lyngby 1+ goals

77%

Lyngby 2+ goals

42%

Lyngby 3+ goals

18%

Hobro 1+ goals

71%

Hobro 2+ goals

35%

Hobro 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lyngby (draw refunded)

57%

Hobro (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngby at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

Hobro away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngby attack 1.14 + Hobro defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hobro attack 1.03 + Lyngby defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lyngby scores more

42%

level

26%

Hobro scores more

32%

Lyngby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lyngby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. NielsenOwn goal

11'

E. Babayan

23'

M. Rasmussen↳ G. Marcussen

58'

P. J. Boge

63'

M. Rasmussen← Jelle

63'

G. Marcussen← M. Warming

68'

R. Corlu↳ M. Warming

73'

E. Sabbi

75'

P. J. Boge← S. Jakobsen

75'

J. Tjornelund← M. Hvilsom

75'

L. Fosgaard← N. Geertsen

76'

E. Babayan↳ M. Haarup

83'

M. Ornskov

83'

C. Cappis

86'

F. Gytkjaer← A. Riel

86'

P. Da Silva← P. Gregor

87'

89'

90+3'

90+6'

90+10'

90+10'

90+10'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LyngbyHobro

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots15

2Corners11

14Fouls17

Shots

5Total Shots15

3On Target8

2Off Target7

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards2

0Offsides3

Lyngby 2 – 2 Hobro

Lyngby and Hobro drew 2-2 in Superliga on July 20, 2020.

Goals: L. Nielsen (8' o.g.), M. Rasmussen (23'), R. Corlu (68'), E. Babayan (76').

Hobro controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Lyngby Stadion in Lyngby.

Lyngby vs Hobro — Superliga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Lyngby 2 – 2 Hobro