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Lyngbø vs Os — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Lyngbø
Lyngbø
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Os
Os
A. Sellevold 44'
J. Aase 34'
K. Brakstad 80' (pen)
M. Sivertsen 41'
10/11/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 24Lyngbø Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lyngbø35%
×Draw22%
Os43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyngbø
1.71
Os
1.90

Os creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lyngbø
1.69
Os
2.26

allows per match

Lyngbø
1.54
Os
1.74

finishing

Lyngbø+0.00on par
Os+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyngbø ↓

Os →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lyngbø or draw
57%
Lyngbø or Os
78%
Draw or Os
65%

Winning margin

Lyngbø wins by 2+
18%
Os wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lyngbø 1+ goals
82%
Lyngbø 2+ goals
51%
Lyngbø 3+ goals
24%
Os 1+ goals
85%
Os 2+ goals
56%
Os 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lyngbø (draw refunded)
45%
Os (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyngbø at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Os away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyngbø attack 1.69 + Os defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.71

Os attack 2.26 + Lyngbø defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lyngbø scores more
35%
level
22%
Os scores more
43%

Os at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Os will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
J. Aase
41'
M. Sivertsen
44'
A. Sellevold
80'
K. BrakstadPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyngbø 2 – 2 Os

Lyngbø and Os drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 11, 2025.

Goals: J. Aase (34'), M. Sivertsen (41'), A. Sellevold (44'), K. Brakstad (80' pen).

The match was played at Lyngbø Idrettspark in Gravdal.