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Lyn vs Ranheim — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lyn
Lyn
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ranheim
Ranheim
M. Niang 54', 45'
M. Johansen 45'
3/6/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lyn45%
×Draw24%
Ranheim31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn
1.63
Ranheim
1.30

Lyn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.31

allows per match

Lyn
1.29
Ranheim
1.69

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par
Ranheim+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Ranheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lyn or draw
69%
Lyn or Ranheim
76%
Draw or Ranheim
55%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+
23%
Ranheim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals
80%
Lyn 2+ goals
48%
Lyn 3+ goals
22%
Ranheim 1+ goals
73%
Ranheim 2+ goals
37%
Ranheim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)
60%
Ranheim (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Ranheim away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 1.57 + Ranheim defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ranheim attack 1.31 + Lyn defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lyn scores more
45%
level
24%
Ranheim scores more
31%

Lyn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Niang
45'
M. Johansen
54'
M. Niang
Lyn
Ranheim
Magnus Aadland
Manager: Magnus Aadland
K. Ingebrigtsen
Manager: K. Ingebrigtsen

Match Recap: Lyn vs Ranheim

Lyn beat Ranheim 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Niang (45', 54'), M. Johansen (45').

The match was played at TBC in TBC.