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Lyn vs Kjelsås II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lyn
Lyn
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kjelsås II
Kjelsås II
6/7/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 9Bislett Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lyn77%
×Draw14%
Kjelsås II9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn
2.73
Kjelsås II
0.81

Lyn creates 237% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lyn
4.08
Kjelsås II
0.77

allows per match

Lyn
0.85
Kjelsås II
1.38

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par
Kjelsås II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Kjelsås II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Lyn or draw
91%
Lyn or Kjelsås II
86%
Draw or Kjelsås II
23%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+
56%
Kjelsås II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals
93%
Lyn 2+ goals
75%
Lyn 3+ goals
50%
Kjelsås II 1+ goals
56%
Kjelsås II 2+ goals
19%
Kjelsås II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)
90%
Kjelsås II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Kjelsås II away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 4.08 + Kjelsås II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.73

Kjelsås II attack 0.77 + Lyn defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Lyn scores more
77%
level
14%
Kjelsås II scores more
9%

Lyn at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lyn vs Kjelsås II

Lyn beat Kjelsås II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 7, 2022.

The match was played at Bislett Stadion in Oslo.