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Lyn vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Lyn
Lyn
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Grorud II
Grorud II
6/19/20223. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 11KFUM Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lyn73%
×Draw14%
Grorud II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn
3.27
Grorud II
1.36

Lyn creates 140% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lyn
4.08
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Lyn
0.85
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lyn or draw
87%
Lyn or Grorud II
86%
Draw or Grorud II
27%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+
54%
Grorud II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals
96%
Lyn 2+ goals
83%
Lyn 3+ goals
62%
Grorud II 1+ goals
74%
Grorud II 2+ goals
39%
Grorud II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)
85%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 4.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 4.08 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 3.27

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Lyn defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lyn scores more
73%
level
14%
Grorud II scores more
13%

Lyn at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyn 3 – 2 Grorud II

Lyn beat Grorud II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at KFUM Arena in Oslo.