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Lyn vs Årdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Lyn
Lyn
CANC
14:00
Årdal
Årdal
8/8/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 1Kringsjå kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lyn79%
×Draw13%
Årdal8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn
3.08
Årdal
0.92

Lyn creates 235% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lyn
2.33
Årdal
0.67

allows per match

Lyn
1.17
Årdal
3.83

finishing

Lyn+0.00on par
Årdal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn ↓

Årdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Lyn or draw
92%
Lyn or Årdal
87%
Draw or Årdal
21%

Winning margin

Lyn wins by 2+
60%
Årdal wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lyn 1+ goals
95%
Lyn 2+ goals
81%
Lyn 3+ goals
58%
Årdal 1+ goals
60%
Årdal 2+ goals
23%
Årdal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lyn (draw refunded)
91%
Årdal (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Årdal away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn attack 2.33 + Årdal defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.08

Årdal attack 0.67 + Lyn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Lyn scores more
79%
level
13%
Årdal scores more
8%

Lyn at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Lyn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lyn face Årdal (3. Division - Girone 4)

3. Division - Girone 4 returns with Lyn hosting Årdal. Match starts August 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lyn host Årdal at Kringsjå kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.