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Lyn II vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Lyn II
Lyn II
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 3
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
B. Hylen 54'
L. Folstad-Andersen 45'
M. Niang 28', 9'
J. Stjernberg 78', 37' (pen)
E. Traeland 19'
A. Bygland 11'
9/6/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 19Kringsjå kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lyn II42%
×Draw19%
Fyllingsdalen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lyn II
2.40
Fyllingsdalen
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lyn II
2.69
Fyllingsdalen
1.90

allows per match

Lyn II
2.77
Fyllingsdalen
2.10

finishing

Lyn II+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lyn II ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Lyn II or draw
61%
Lyn II or Fyllingsdalen
81%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
58%

Winning margin

Lyn II wins by 2+
24%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lyn II 1+ goals
91%
Lyn II 2+ goals
69%
Lyn II 3+ goals
42%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
90%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
67%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Lyn II (draw refunded)
51%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lyn II at home — creates 2.69, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lyn II attack 2.69 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.40

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.90 + Lyn II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lyn II scores more
42%
level
19%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
39%

Lyn II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lyn II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Niang
11'
A. Bygland
19'
E. Traeland
28'
M. Niang
37'
J. StjernbergPenalty
45'
L. Folstad-Andersen
54'
B. Hylen
78'
J. Stjernberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lyn II vs Fyllingsdalen

Lyn II and Fyllingsdalen drew 4-4 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Niang (9', 28'), A. Bygland (11'), E. Traeland (19'), J. Stjernberg (37' pen, 78'), L. Folstad-Andersen (45'), B. Hylen (54').

The match was played at Kringsjå kunstgress in Oslo.