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Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2026

Lviv
Lviv
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
10/5/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lviv23%
×Draw24%
Zorya Luhansk52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lviv
1.02
Zorya Luhansk
1.66

Zorya Luhansk creates 63% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 103 away

creates per match

Lviv
0.81
Zorya Luhansk
1.60

allows per match

Lviv
1.72
Zorya Luhansk
1.24

finishing

Lviv+0.00on par
Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lviv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lviv or draw
48%
Lviv or Zorya Luhansk
76%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
77%

Winning margin

Lviv wins by 2+
8%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lviv 1+ goals
64%
Lviv 2+ goals
27%
Lviv 3+ goals
8%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
81%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
49%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lviv (draw refunded)
31%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lviv at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 54 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lviv attack 0.81 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.60 + Lviv defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lviv scores more
23%
level
24%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
52%

Zorya Luhansk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Zorya Luhansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Lviv 0–0 Zorya Luhansk

Lviv and Zorya Luhansk drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.