Lviv 1–4 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Lviv

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Dynamo Kyiv

F. Čirjak 36' (pen)

D. Harmash 83', 58'

V. Tsygankov 45+1'

V. Buyalskyi 38'

10/16/2021

Premier League · Round 11Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lviv16%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Kyiv63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LvivExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.00

Lviv

0.88

Dynamo Kyiv

2.00

Dynamo Kyiv creates 127% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 98 away

0.81

creates per match

2.27

1.72

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Lviv

0.81

Dynamo Kyiv

2.27

allows per match

Lviv

1.72

Dynamo Kyiv

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lviv+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lviv ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lviv or draw

37%

Lviv or Dynamo Kyiv

79%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

84%

Winning margin

Lviv wins by 2+

5%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Lviv 1+ goals

59%

Lviv 2+ goals

22%

Lviv 3+ goals

6%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

59%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Lviv (draw refunded)

20%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lviv at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 54 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lviv attack 0.81 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.27 + Lviv defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lviv scores more

16%

level

21%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

63%

Dynamo Kyiv at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Vitaliy Mykolenko

36'

F. ČirjakPenalty

38'

V. Buyalskyi↳ V. Mykolenko

41'

D. Harmash← V. Supryaha

42'

Carlos De Pena

45+1'

V. Tsygankov↳ V. Shepelev

46'

China← S. Politylo

46'

Alvaro Tavares← N. Nych

46'

Vitinho← C. de Pena

46'

O. Karavaev← V. Mykolenko

58'

D. Harmash

61'

A. Remenyak← M. Grysjo

75'

A. Shabanov← O. Syrota

75'

B. Verbič← V. Tsygankov

76'

B. Krushynskyi← China

80'

S. Sorokin← F. Čirjak

82'

Ivan Brikner

83'

D. Harmash↳ B. Verbič

87'

Vitinho

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LvivDynamo

Overview

45%Possession55%

4Total Shots11

0Corners8

7Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots11

3On Target5

1Off Target6

Passing

45%Possession55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0