Luzi 2008 1–0 Dinamo Tirana: Result & Stats

Luzi 2008

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Tirana

5/18/2023

1st Division · Round 26Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Luzi 200840%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Tirana33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzi 2008Expected goals in this matchDinamo Tirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.12

Luzi 2008

1.26

Dinamo Tirana

1.12

Luzi 2008 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

1.39

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Luzi 2008

1.39

Dinamo Tirana

1.17

allows per match

Luzi 2008

1.07

Dinamo Tirana

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

Dinamo Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw

67%

Luzi 2008 or Dinamo Tirana

72%

Draw or Dinamo Tirana

60%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

72%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

36%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

67%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

31%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

55%

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dinamo Tirana attack 1.17 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more

40%

level

28%

Dinamo Tirana scores more

33%

Luzi 2008 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luzi 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff