Luzi 2008 3–1 Bylis: Result & Stats | 1st Division

Luzi 2008

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Bylis

3/9/2024

1st Division · Round 24Stadiumi Vora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Luzi 200837%

×Draw28%

Bylis35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzi 2008Expected goals in this matchBylis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.18

Luzi 2008

1.21

Bylis

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

1.39

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Luzi 2008

1.39

Bylis

1.29

allows per match

Luzi 2008

1.07

Bylis

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Bylis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

Bylis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw

65%

Luzi 2008 or Bylis

72%

Draw or Bylis

63%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

16%

Bylis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

70%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

34%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

12%

Bylis 1+ goals

69%

Bylis 2+ goals

33%

Bylis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

51%

Bylis (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Bylis away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + Bylis defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bylis attack 1.29 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more

37%

level

28%

Bylis scores more

35%

Luzi 2008 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Luzi 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff