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Luzi 2008 vs Burreli — 1st Division 2019

Luzi 2008
Luzi 2008
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Burreli
Burreli
10/15/20221st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Tofik Jashari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Luzi 200847%
×Draw27%
Burreli26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzi 2008
1.42
Burreli
0.97

Luzi 2008 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

creates per match

Luzi 2008
1.39
Burreli
0.86

allows per match

Luzi 2008
1.07
Burreli
1.44

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par
Burreli+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

Burreli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw
74%
Luzi 2008 or Burreli
73%
Draw or Burreli
53%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+
23%
Burreli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals
76%
Luzi 2008 2+ goals
41%
Luzi 2008 3+ goals
17%
Burreli 1+ goals
62%
Burreli 2+ goals
25%
Burreli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)
65%
Burreli (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Burreli away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.44 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + Burreli defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Burreli attack 0.86 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more
47%
level
27%
Burreli scores more
26%

Luzi 2008 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luzi 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzi 2008 vs Burreli

Luzi 2008 beat Burreli 2-1 in 1st Division on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Tofik Jashari in Shijak.