Luzi 2008 2–2 Besa Kavajë: Result & Stats

Luzi 2008

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Besa Kavajë

3/18/2023

1st Division · Round 20Stadiumi Luz i Vogël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Luzi 200843%

×Draw26%

Besa Kavajë30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzi 2008Expected goals in this matchBesa Kavajë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Luzi 2008

1.42

Besa Kavajë

1.14

Luzi 2008 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 100 away

1.39

creates per match

1.20

1.07

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Luzi 2008

1.39

Besa Kavajë

1.20

allows per match

Luzi 2008

1.07

Besa Kavajë

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzi 2008+0.00on par

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzi 2008 ↓

Besa Kavajë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Luzi 2008 or draw

70%

Luzi 2008 or Besa Kavajë

74%

Draw or Besa Kavajë

57%

Winning margin

Luzi 2008 wins by 2+

21%

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luzi 2008 1+ goals

76%

Luzi 2008 2+ goals

41%

Luzi 2008 3+ goals

17%

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

68%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

32%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Luzi 2008 (draw refunded)

59%

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzi 2008 at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzi 2008 attack 1.39 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Luzi 2008 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luzi 2008 scores more

43%

level

26%

Besa Kavajë scores more

30%

Luzi 2008 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luzi 2008 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff