Luzern W 1–2 Young Boys W: Result & Stats

Luzern W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Young Boys W

4/13/2025

AXA Women’s Super League · Quarter-finalsswissporarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luzern W28%

×Draw21%

Young Boys W52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzern WExpected goals in this matchYoung Boys W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.16

Luzern W

1.54

Young Boys W

2.16

Young Boys W creates 40% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 57 away

1.36

creates per match

1.86

2.46

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Luzern W

1.36

Young Boys W

1.86

allows per match

Luzern W

2.46

Young Boys W

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzern W+0.00on par

Young Boys W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern W ↓

Young Boys W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Luzern W or draw

48%

Luzern W or Young Boys W

79%

Draw or Young Boys W

72%

Winning margin

Luzern W wins by 2+

13%

Young Boys W wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Luzern W 1+ goals

79%

Luzern W 2+ goals

45%

Luzern W 3+ goals

20%

Young Boys W 1+ goals

88%

Young Boys W 2+ goals

63%

Young Boys W 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Luzern W (draw refunded)

35%

Young Boys W (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern W at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.46 · 70 matches

Young Boys W away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.72 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern W attack 1.36 + Young Boys W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Young Boys W attack 1.86 + Luzern W defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luzern W scores more

28%

level

21%

Young Boys W scores more

52%

Young Boys W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Young Boys W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff