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Luzern II vs Zürich II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Zürich II
Zürich II
10/23/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 13Sportanlage Hubelmatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Luzern II48%
×Draw21%
Zürich II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
2.09
Zürich II
1.63

Luzern II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 105 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
Zürich II
1.51

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
Zürich II
1.80

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
Zürich II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Zürich II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
70%
Luzern II or Zürich II
79%
Draw or Zürich II
52%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
28%
Zürich II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
88%
Luzern II 2+ goals
62%
Luzern II 3+ goals
34%
Zürich II 1+ goals
80%
Zürich II 2+ goals
48%
Zürich II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
61%
Zürich II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Zürich II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Zürich II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.09

Zürich II attack 1.51 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Luzern II scores more
48%
level
21%
Zürich II scores more
30%

Luzern II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luzern II vs Zürich II

Luzern II beat Zürich II 4-2 in 1. Liga Promotion on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Hubelmatt in Luzern.