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Luzern II vs Lugano II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Luzern II
Luzern II
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Lugano II
Lugano II
11/18/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 17Stadion Kleinfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luzern II54%
×Draw20%
Lugano II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luzern II
2.28
Lugano II
1.56

Luzern II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

creates per match

Luzern II
2.38
Lugano II
1.39

allows per match

Luzern II
1.74
Lugano II
2.18

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par
Lugano II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Lugano II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw
74%
Luzern II or Lugano II
80%
Draw or Lugano II
46%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+
33%
Lugano II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals
90%
Luzern II 2+ goals
66%
Luzern II 3+ goals
39%
Lugano II 1+ goals
79%
Lugano II 2+ goals
46%
Lugano II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)
67%
Lugano II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Lugano II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Lugano II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lugano II attack 1.39 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Luzern II scores more
54%
level
20%
Lugano II scores more
26%

Luzern II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Luzern II 4–4 Lugano II

Luzern II and Lugano II drew 4-4 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kleinfeld in Kriens.