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Lugano II vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Lugano II
Lugano II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Luzern II
Luzern II
L. Peres 53'
N. Rupp 50' (pen)
I. Hegglin 34'
5/25/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 34Centro Sportivo Al Maglio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lugano II39%
×Draw22%
Luzern II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lugano II
1.81
Luzern II
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lugano II
1.37
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

Lugano II
1.57
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

Lugano II+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lugano II ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lugano II or draw
61%
Lugano II or Luzern II
78%
Draw or Luzern II
61%

Winning margin

Lugano II wins by 2+
20%
Luzern II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lugano II 1+ goals
84%
Lugano II 2+ goals
54%
Lugano II 3+ goals
27%
Luzern II 1+ goals
84%
Luzern II 2+ goals
54%
Luzern II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lugano II (draw refunded)
50%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lugano II at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lugano II attack 1.37 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.81

Luzern II attack 2.04 + Lugano II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lugano II scores more
39%
level
22%
Luzern II scores more
39%

Lugano II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lugano II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
I. Hegglin
50'
N. RuppPenalty
53'
L. Peres
54'
M. De Jesus Sousa← N. Spinelli
54'
L. Cuoco← L. Cuoco
54'
M. Basic← M. Basic
56'
M. Jaiteh
62'
A. Maccoppi
64'
M. Walker← M. Walker
64'
L. Winkler← S. Meyer
81'
M. Zimmermann← M. Zimmermann
81'
N. Rupp← S. Haag
86'
E. Vogel← E. Vogel
88'
B. H. Freimann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lugano II vs Luzern II

Luzern II beat Lugano II 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 25, 2024.

Goals: I. Hegglin (34'), N. Rupp (50' pen), L. Peres (53').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Al Maglio in Canobbio.