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Oldham vs Macclesfield — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Macclesfield
Macclesfield
8/18/2018League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Oldham47%
×Draw25%
Macclesfield28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.54
Macclesfield
1.13

Oldham creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 42 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Macclesfield
0.83

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Macclesfield
1.64

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Macclesfield+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Macclesfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
72%
Oldham or Macclesfield
75%
Draw or Macclesfield
53%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
24%
Macclesfield wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
79%
Oldham 2+ goals
45%
Oldham 3+ goals
20%
Macclesfield 1+ goals
68%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
31%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
63%
Macclesfield (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Macclesfield away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Macclesfield defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Macclesfield attack 0.83 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oldham scores more
47%
level
25%
Macclesfield scores more
28%

Oldham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Oldham 3–1 Macclesfield

Oldham beat Macclesfield 3-1 in League Two on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.