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Luxembourg W vs Lithuania W — Friendlies Women 2026

Luxembourg W
Luxembourg W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Lithuania W
Lithuania W
L. Miller 47'
A. Thompson 29'
J. Sabatauskaite 33'
U. Lazdauskaite 18', 15'
11/13/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Luxembourg W37%
×Draw22%
Lithuania W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg W
1.71
Lithuania W
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Luxembourg W
2.29
Lithuania W
1.63

allows per match

Luxembourg W
2.00
Lithuania W
1.13

finishing

Luxembourg W+0.00on par
Lithuania W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg W ↓

Lithuania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Luxembourg W or draw
59%
Luxembourg W or Lithuania W
78%
Draw or Lithuania W
63%

Winning margin

Luxembourg W wins by 2+
19%
Lithuania W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Luxembourg W 1+ goals
82%
Luxembourg W 2+ goals
51%
Luxembourg W 3+ goals
24%
Lithuania W 1+ goals
84%
Lithuania W 2+ goals
54%
Lithuania W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg W (draw refunded)
47%
Lithuania W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Lithuania W away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg W attack 2.29 + Lithuania W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lithuania W attack 1.63 + Luxembourg W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luxembourg W scores more
37%
level
22%
Lithuania W scores more
41%

Lithuania W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lithuania W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
U. Lazdauskaite
18'
U. Lazdauskaite
21'
22'
22'
29'
A. Thompson
33'
J. Sabatauskaite
47'
L. Miller
65'
90+3'
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luxembourg W 2 – 3 Lithuania W

Lithuania W beat Luxembourg W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on November 13, 2022.

Goals: U. Lazdauskaite (15', 18'), A. Thompson (29'), J. Sabatauskaite (33'), L. Miller (47').

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Rumelange.