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Luxembourg W vs Faroe Islands W — Friendlies Women 2026

Luxembourg W
Luxembourg W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Faroe Islands W
Faroe Islands W
L. Miller 90+1'
A. Thompson 50'
H. Sevdal 30'
4/8/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Terrain Op der Hei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Luxembourg W53%
×Draw21%
Faroe Islands W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg W
2.20
Faroe Islands W
1.50

Luxembourg W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luxembourg W
2.29
Faroe Islands W
1.00

allows per match

Luxembourg W
2.00
Faroe Islands W
2.11

finishing

Luxembourg W+0.00on par
Faroe Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg W ↓

Faroe Islands W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Luxembourg W or draw
74%
Luxembourg W or Faroe Islands W
79%
Draw or Faroe Islands W
47%

Winning margin

Luxembourg W wins by 2+
32%
Faroe Islands W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Luxembourg W 1+ goals
89%
Luxembourg W 2+ goals
64%
Luxembourg W 3+ goals
37%
Faroe Islands W 1+ goals
78%
Faroe Islands W 2+ goals
44%
Faroe Islands W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg W (draw refunded)
67%
Faroe Islands W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg W at home — creates 2.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Faroe Islands W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg W attack 2.29 + Faroe Islands W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.20

Faroe Islands W attack 1.00 + Luxembourg W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Luxembourg W scores more
53%
level
21%
Faroe Islands W scores more
26%

Luxembourg W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Luxembourg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
H. Sevdal
46'
C. Lavinas Teixeira← C. Lavinas Teixeira
46'
L. Miller← L. Miller
46'
A. S. Machado← A. S. Machado
46'
A. Dervisevic← A. Dervisevic
50'
A. Thompson
54'
63'
M. Soares Marques← M. Soares Marques
78'
O. Konsbruck← O. Konsbruck
90+1'
L. Miller

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Luxembourg W 2–1 Faroe Islands W

Luxembourg W beat Faroe Islands W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on April 8, 2023.

Goals: H. Sevdal (30'), A. Thompson (50'), L. Miller (90+1').

The match was played at Terrain Op der Hei in Hosingen.