Luxembourg 1–2 Ukraine: Result & Stats

Luxembourg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ukraine

D. Turpel 34'

G. Rodrigues 90+3' (OG)

V. Tsygankov 40'

3/25/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Stade Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Luxembourg26%

×Draw23%

Ukraine51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchUkraine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.79

Luxembourg

1.21

Ukraine

1.79

Ukraine creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

2.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Luxembourg

1.00

Ukraine

1.57

allows per match

Luxembourg

2.00

Ukraine

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Ukraine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Ukraine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

49%

Luxembourg or Ukraine

77%

Draw or Ukraine

74%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

10%

Ukraine wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

70%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

34%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

12%

Ukraine 1+ goals

83%

Ukraine 2+ goals

53%

Ukraine 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

34%

Ukraine (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Ukraine away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.00 + Ukraine defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ukraine attack 1.57 + Luxembourg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Luxembourg scores more

26%

level

23%

Ukraine scores more

51%

Ukraine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ukraine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Malinovskiy

Ukraine · M

7.8

Match Events

34'

D. Turpel

40'

V. Tsygankov↳ O. Zinchenko

45'

48'

51'

62'

63'

64'

R. Yaremchuk← R. Bezus

74'

S. Bensi← V. Thill

79'

O. Karavaev← B. Butko

87'

V. Buyalskyi← O. Karavaev

90'

Dirk Carlson

90+1'

M. Mutsch← O. Thill

90+3'

G. RodriguesOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LuxembourgUkraine

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots14

5Corners10

16Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target3

6Off Target7

2Blocked4

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

306Total Passes487

234Accurate Passes417

76%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1