Luxembourg 0–0 Senegal: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Luxembourg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Senegal

5/31/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Luxembourg33%

×Draw28%

Senegal39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuxembourgExpected goals in this matchSenegal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.21

Luxembourg

1.10

Senegal

1.21

Senegal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

0.78

creates per match

1.08

1.33

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Luxembourg

0.78

Senegal

1.08

allows per match

Luxembourg

1.33

Senegal

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par

Senegal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Senegal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw

61%

Luxembourg or Senegal

72%

Draw or Senegal

67%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+

13%

Senegal wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals

67%

Luxembourg 2+ goals

30%

Luxembourg 3+ goals

10%

Senegal 1+ goals

70%

Senegal 2+ goals

34%

Senegal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)

46%

Senegal (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Senegal away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Senegal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.10

Senegal attack 1.08 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luxembourg scores more

33%

level

28%

Senegal scores more

39%

Senegal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Senegal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Sané← K. Koulibaly

46'

M. Diouf← K. Baldé

46'

Badou N'Diaye← I. Gueye

46'

L. Gassama← S. Ciss

56'

Daniel Alves da Mota← M. Mutsch

65'

D. Sakho← I. Sarr

69'

C. N'Doye← A. NDiaye

74'

Christopher Martins Pereira

80'

M. Jänisch← D. Carlson

83'

A. Skenderovic← C. Martins Pereira

87'

Daniel da Mota

90'

M'Baye Niang

90+3'

F. Bohnert← Daniel Alves da Mota

90+4'

E. Mahmutovic← A. Joachim

Possession

Shots

Statistics

LuxembourgSenegal

Overview

31%Possession69%

3Total Shots14

2Corners8

15Fouls13

Shots

3Total Shots14

1On Target5

2Off Target9

Passing

31%Possession69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1