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Luxembourg vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
G. Rodrigues 75'
S. Korač 72'
C. Bradley 50'
I. Price 19'
11/18/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 6Stade de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Luxembourg52%
×Draw28%
Northern Ireland20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
1.38
Northern Ireland
0.74

Luxembourg creates 86% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
1.31
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Luxembourg
0.85
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
80%
Luxembourg or Northern Ireland
72%
Draw or Northern Ireland
48%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
26%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
75%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
40%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
16%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
52%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
17%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
72%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.31 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Luxembourg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Luxembourg scores more
52%
level
28%
Northern Ireland scores more
20%

Luxembourg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
I. PriceNorthern IrelandNorthern Ireland · F
8.7

Match Events

19'
I. Price↳ S. Charles
41'
Brodie Spencer
50'
C. Bradley↳ I. Price
56'
M. Olesen← M. Pinto
56'
E. Mahmutović← L. Barreiro
72'
S. Korač↳ D. Sinani
74'
R. Schon← T. Pereira Cardoso
74'
A. Curci← F. Bohnert
75'
G. Rodrigues
76'
G. Saville← A. McCann
76'
J. Reid← D. Charles
80'
Alessio Curci
80'
Trai Hume
82'
M. Martins← D. Carlson
89'
P. Smyth← E. Galbraith
90+2'
J. Devenny← I. Price

Possession

54%Luxembourg

Shots

6Luxembourg

Pass accuracy

51%Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgNorthern
Overview
54%Possession46%
6Total Shots9
0Corners5
18Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots9
2On Target5
2Off Target4
2Blocked0
2Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
405Total Passes340
333Accurate Passes271
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
18Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

UEFA Nations League: Luxembourg 2–2 Northern Ireland

Luxembourg and Northern Ireland drew 2-2 in UEFA Nations League on November 18, 2024.

Goals: I. Price (19'), C. Bradley (50'), S. Korač (72'), G. Rodrigues (75').

Luxembourg controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade de Luxembourg in Luxembourg.