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Luxembourg vs Montenegro — UEFA Nations League 2018

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Montenegro
Montenegro
Fatos Beqiraj 90+2' (pen)
9/8/2020UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 2Josy Barthel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Luxembourg41%
×Draw31%
Montenegro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
1.10
Montenegro
0.87

Luxembourg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
1.31
Montenegro
0.89

allows per match

Luxembourg
0.85
Montenegro
0.89

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
71%
Luxembourg or Montenegro
69%
Draw or Montenegro
59%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
17%
Montenegro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
67%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
30%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
10%
Montenegro 1+ goals
58%
Montenegro 2+ goals
22%
Montenegro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
59%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 1.31 + Montenegro defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Montenegro attack 0.89 + Luxembourg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luxembourg scores more
41%
level
31%
Montenegro scores more
29%

Luxembourg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Milan MijatovićMontenegroMontenegro · G
8.9

Match Events

1'
Christopher Martins Pereira
23'
Vincent Thill
36'
Dirk Carlson
59'
Momčilo Raspopović
62'
Marko Bakić← Stevan Jovetić
71'
Marko Janković← Aleksandar Boljević
75'
Fatos Beqiraj← Dino Islamović
80'
Vahid Selimović
84'
Christopher Martins Pereira
84'
Christopher Martins Pereira
86'
Stefan Savić
90+3'
Laurent Jans
90+2'
Fatos BeqirajPenalty

Possession

62%Luxembourg

Shots

21Luxembourg

Pass accuracy

53%Luxembourg

Statistics

LuxembourgMontenegro
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots10
4Corners2
18Fouls16
Shots
21Total Shots10
7On Target5
10Off Target3
4Blocked2
6Inside Box4
15Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
567Total Passes347
486Accurate Passes262
86%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves7
Discipline
18Fouls16
6Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Luxembourg vs Montenegro

Montenegro beat Luxembourg 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on September 8, 2020.

Goals: Fatos Beqiraj (90+2' pen).

Luxembourg controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Josy Barthel in Luxembourg.