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Luxembourg vs Madagascar — Friendlies 2026

Luxembourg
Luxembourg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Madagascar
Madagascar
Laurent Jans 90'
Vahid Selimovic 90'
Vincent Thill 2'
Andria 62'
Faneva Ima Andriatsima 37' (pen)
Paulin Voavy 35'
6/2/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stade Josy Barthel (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Luxembourg41%
×Draw26%
Madagascar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luxembourg
1.39
Madagascar
1.22

Luxembourg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Luxembourg
0.78
Madagascar
1.10

allows per match

Luxembourg
1.33
Madagascar
2.00

finishing

Luxembourg+0.00on par
Madagascar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luxembourg ↓

Madagascar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Luxembourg or draw
67%
Luxembourg or Madagascar
74%
Draw or Madagascar
59%

Winning margin

Luxembourg wins by 2+
19%
Madagascar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Luxembourg 1+ goals
75%
Luxembourg 2+ goals
40%
Luxembourg 3+ goals
16%
Madagascar 1+ goals
70%
Madagascar 2+ goals
34%
Madagascar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luxembourg (draw refunded)
55%
Madagascar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luxembourg at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Madagascar away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luxembourg attack 0.78 + Madagascar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Madagascar attack 1.10 + Luxembourg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luxembourg scores more
41%
level
26%
Madagascar scores more
33%

Luxembourg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Vincent Thill
35'
Paulin Voavy
37'
Faneva Ima AndriatsimaPenalty
61'
Vincent ThillMissed penalty
62'
Andria
90'
Laurent Jans
90'
Vahid Selimovic
Luxembourg
Madagascar
L. Holtz
Manager: L. Holtz
F. Andriamanarivo
Manager: F. Andriamanarivo

Match Recap: Luxembourg vs Madagascar

Luxembourg and Madagascar drew 3-3 in Friendlies on June 2, 2019.

Goals: Vincent Thill (2'), Paulin Voavy (35'), Faneva Ima Andriatsima (37' pen), Andria (62'), Laurent Jans (90'), Vahid Selimovic (90').

The match was played at Stade Josy Barthel (Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)).